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Av Oscar Molstream - 19 januari 2011 09:44

Det är en bok med många namn ur överklassen och med uppgifter från anonyma källor. Kriminellt belastade personer har funnits i bakgrunden. Kvinnor har kallats in till kaffet och senare enskilda övningar. Säpo har troget sin uppgift skyddat och tigit och mer eller mindre sett på. 
Respektens fördämning har brustit. Kungahuset har trots allt skyddats av media. Det finns en gräns: kittlandet skvaller om kungen, visst, men inga ohöljda sensationer om orgier och privat förfall. Rykten har gått – det gjorde det redan om Gustav V – men inga media har kollat dem i avsikt att göra en sann och osminkad publicering. 

Kungahuset säljer. En viss mystik av glans och upphöjdhet måste vidmakthållas. De stickande tanterna skulle inte köpa veckotidningar annars. Svenskt näringsliv skulle inte dra nytta av den märkvärdighet som sägs betyda så mycket i exportsammanhang. De kommersiella kvällstidningarna gör allt för att leva upp till sitt dåliga rykte, men för mycket av det dåliga är inte bra när det gäller kung och lösnummer. 

I och med boken har alla hämningar släppts. Det snaskigaste och mesta säljande har publicerats. Vad som är sant eller inte kan ingen utomstående bedöma. Boken är ingen forskningsrapport med redovisade källor. Varför läsa den när man redan hört men inte kan kolla? 
Har glansen kring kungahuset falnat? Kanske, men inte intresset. Råare skvaller kommer att blandas med sedvanligt joller om Victorias förväntade nedkomst. Kring kungen finns apparaten kvar, de officiella plikterna består och skandalerna har inte förtagit märkvärdigheten, bara gjort den lite förvänd. 

Personligen är kungen inte mäktig någon briljans. Han är präglad av sin uppfostran och sin ställning. Han kan inte uppträda som vanligt folk och vara den enkla människa han är. Det är synd om kungen. 
Republikaner skall inte hoppas. Partierna sneglar mera på opinionsmätningar än på sina partiprogram. Så förfärliga skandaler kan inte idag avslöjas att republik införs. I bästa fall har vi sett en mikroskopisk början. 

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Av Oscar Molstream - 19 januari 2011 09:43

I teorier om marknader ger lägre pris större försäljningsvolym. På arbetsmarknaden skulle då priset på arbetskraft, löner, leda till att fler fick arbete om lönerna sänks. 
Men så är det inte. Det beror på att de som står för efterfrågan är de som får löner. De kan inte efterfråga mer om de tjänar mindre. 
Om alla försöker svälta sig ur en lågkonjunktur, med lägre löner, leder det till en nedåtspiral för det landets ekonomi. Sker samma sak i flera länder leder det till depression. Nationalekonomen Keynes skrev om det på 30-talet och lanserade idén att staten bryter nedgången med offentliga investeringar i lågkonjunkturer. De finansieras med lån som betalas med höjda skatter i högkonjunkturer. 
I Sverige har en hög arbetslöshet bitit sig fast. Den är nu på 7,5 procent eller 370 000 arbetslösa. Det sägs, från regeringen, att det går bra för Sverige och att statens finanser är goda. Baksidan av det är att många står utanför den gemenskap och frihet det innebär att ha ett arbete. 
Den liberala tankesmedjan Fores har gjort en undersökning som presenterades i går. Enligt den kan 60 procent av de arbetslösa tänka sig sänkt lön. Och 30 procent av de arbetslösa kan tänka sig 20 procent lägre lön. 
Vid en första anblick kan det te sig bra. Att ta arbete till lägre lön skulle ju kunna ge många jobb eftersom företagen har råd att anställa fler. 
Av många skäl är det dock olämpligt att arbetskraften, arbetslösa, bjuder under varandra. Ett skäl är att de får dåligt betalt för det arbete som det nyss gick att få en högre lön för. 

Ett annat skäl är att omvandlingstrycket på företagen, att effektivisera sin verksamhet, blir svagare. Risken är att företagen då hamnar på efterkälken i konkurrensen. 
Ett tredje skäl är det keynesianska. Med lägre löner minskar köpkraften, i de grupper det är fråga om och totalt. Det leder till en lägre efterfrågan i ekonomin, vilket minskar tillväxten. 
Eftersom det ofta är yrken i sektorer med låga löner, främst i tjänstesektorn, som det kan bli fråga om att anställa fler till lägre lön vet man att det omedelbart ger effekt i lägre efterfrågan i ekonomin. De grupperna brukar nämligen konsumera hela sin tillgängliga lön. 
Att arbetslösa tar jobb till lägre lön än det som har avtalats på arbetsmarknaden är inte bra för någon. 
I undersökningen för Fores kom det också fram att viljan att flytta till jobb är låg, möjligen lägre än för några årtionden sedan. Det är förståeligt. 
En individ har ofta sin familj och sociala nätverk på en viss ort. Att flytta från dem, särskilt om det är långt bort, bär emot. Det blir för mycket svårigheter i det sociala och privata livet. 
Även om det finns en del undantag är det ofta fråga om att arbetslösa i glesare bebodda landsdelar ska flytta till universitets- och storstäder, där de flesta jobben finns. Men där finns inga tillgängliga bostäder och de få som finns är dyra. 

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Av Oscar Molstream - 19 januari 2011 09:42

Villaägare i storstäder, som Sahlin knackar dörr hos då hon kampanjarbetar, måste rösta på partiet med entusiasm och inte, som nu, av uppoffring. 
S ska ta farväl till återinförd förmögenhetsskatt, fastighetsskatt och borttagande av jobbskatteavdrag. Det får inte kosta i form av skattehöjningar för grupper med inkomster en bit ovan snittet att rösta på S. Och partiet måste bli bättre på att uppmuntra småföretag. 
S måste profilera sig vassare då det gäller jobben. A-kassan ska tydligt vara en omställningsförsäkring, där ersättningen ska vara god första tiden men sedan trappas av och upphöra. 
Att ha med Vänsterpartiet i samarbetet mellan S och Miljöpartiet inför valet var fel. Sahlin ville inte ha med Lars Ohlys parti. Hon blev tvingad till det av sitt partis vänsterflygel. 
Det rödgröna samarbetet blev därmed ett misslyckande. Ett alternativ med S+MP hade signalerat en mitteninriktning med chans att bryta upp blockpolitiken, underförstått lockat över något mindre borgerligt parti in i S+MP-samverkan. 
Det alternativ med S+MP+V, som blev av, signalerar blockpolitik och låser fast de borgerliga partierna i deras allians. 

Hur ska man se på Sahlins tal? 
Det är ingen hemlighet att Sahlin varit en S-politiker som legat åt höger i partiet. Som partiledare var hon dock tvungen att placera sig mer i mitten i partiet. 
Med innehållet i talet knyter Sahlin an till sin tidigare högerposition i S. Och hon är i talet mer av en debattör om partiets inriktning än en enande partiledare. 
S som ett mittenparti är emellertid något som på kort sikt har god chans att krossa Reinfeldts moderatledda alliansregering. 
För så här är det: Med ett närmande till mitten skulle S bli mer attraktivt för de där villaägarna i större städer med inkomster en bit över snittet. Det skulle leda till väljarvinster för S, från M. Men det skulle inte givet leda till ett större S-parti. Det ger dock med säkerhet en annan sorts parti, ett mer socialliberalt. 
I andra änden skulle nämligen S tappa väljare. Bland de där som Sahlin tycker att S talat för mycket om: de arbetslösa, sjuka, lågutbildade, låginkomsttagare, hyresrättsboende, pensionärer med låg pension, de som bor på de 80 procent av Sveriges yta där en minoritet av befolkningen bor. En del av dem skulle gå till Vänsterpartiet, några kanske till Sverigedemokraterna. Men många skulle bli valskolkare i protest mot att S överger dem. 

Ett högerförnyat S skulle få, säg, 28 procent. Men partiet erövrar mitten i svensk politik med sitt program och genom vunna röster från M-ledda alliansen, som då hamnar på mindre än 45 procent. 

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Av Oscar Molstream - 19 januari 2011 09:41

Sverige har länge, om än med undantag av Ny Demokratis korta karriär, klarat sig från den främlingsfientliga missnöjeshöger som grasserar i de flesta europeiska länder. Att Sverige så länge undslapp eländet har sin grund i att den svenska välfärdsstaten och den svenska modellen länge upprättade starka försvarslinjer mot det slaget av missnöje. En bra a-kassa, en bra generell välfärd och dessutom starka fackföreningar - detta räddade oss länge. När dessa försvarslinjer sakta men säkert vittrat ner och samtidigt de stora partierna rört sig mot mitten har det blivit lättare för extremhögern att vinna terräng. Och nu är Sverige alltså ungefär som de flesta andra länder i Europa. 
  
Vilken paradox! Extremnationalisterna i Sverigedemokraterna tar sig in i riksdagen - och utplånar en nationell särart! 
  
Detta var den historiska förändring som inträffade i gårdagens val. Den innebär ett stort nederlag för allt humant tänkande. Men Sverigedemokraternas entré i Riksdagen innebär också en oerhörd utmaning för de övriga partierna. 
  
Blir Sverigedemokraterna vågmästare? I skrivande stund - halv elva på söndagkvällen - pendlar det fram och tillbaka; nyss hade Sverigedemokraterna makten på gaffeln, sedan tappade de den. Men om - jag säger om - Alliansen inte får majoritet, ja, då kan den politiska situationen gå mot kaos denna höst. Bör Reinfeldt sitta kvar om han inte får parlamentarisk majoritet? Svaret på det är - Nej. 
I ett sådant läge borde det rimliga vara att regeringen Reinfeldt avgår och att en klassisk talmansrunda inleds där alla möjligheter till en hållbar och stabil majoritetsregering sonderas. 
  
Givetvis vill den moderatledda regeringen sitta kvar i orubbat bo. Men skulle den de facto sakna majoritet innebär det att den måste stödja sig åtminstone passivt på Sverigedemokraterna. Det är en lösning som är moraliskt ytterst tvivelaktig och dessutom parlamentariskt oerhört skakig. Det är för tidigt att redan nu spekulera kring tänkbara lösningar, även om kremlologerna redan börjat sitt arbete. Men jag menar att det är av central vikt att sittande regering tar konsekvenserna av en eventuell majoritetsförlust och börjar agera efter det faktum att den inte har majoritet. Allt annat innebär i själva verket att sätta viljan till makt före de demokratiska spelreglerna. På sikt är det enbart missnöjespartier som vinner på det. 

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Av Oscar Molstream - 19 januari 2011 09:40

Hade all utrustning detonerat samtidigt hade det åstadkommit stor skada. Om det skett i en folksamling hade en katastrof uppstått. Platsen för dåden var centrala delarna av huvudstaden, nära köpstråk med stora mängder människor. 
Enligt uppgifter har ett meddelande skickats till bland annat nyhetsbyrån TT tio minuter innan detonationen. Det hade innehåll som går ut på att attentatsmannen uttrycker missnöje med Sveriges militära närvaro i Afghanistan och den svenska konstnären Lars Vilks teckningar av den muslimska profeten Muhammed. 
Sammantaget indikerar fakta på att det rör sig om terroristdåd. Som sådant kan de anses amatörmässiga, eftersom bara en rörbomb sprängdes med begränsad effekt. På ett annat plan var det tur, eftersom inga blev allvarligt skadade utöver attentatsmannen. 
Samtidigt indikerar gärningsmannens bomb- och utrustningsarsenal, plats och meddelandet till TT att det är fråga om mer än en amatörs agerande eller ett vansinnigt påhitt. 
Med denna bakgrund är det dags att analysera det inträffade, även om det gäller att vara restriktiv med spekulationer. 
Efter al-Qaidas terrordåd i USA 11 september 2001 har terrordåd ägt rum i Spanien och Storbritannien. De motiverades med de ländernas deltagande i Irakkriget. 
Om det stämmer att ett motiv för lördagens attentat är svenska deltagandet i kriget i Afghanistan och konstnären Vilks teckningar, som enligt många muslimer är provocerande mot deras religion, har Sverige politiska frågor att diskutera. 
En är om vårt land ska delta i militära operationer som de i Afghanistan. Om vi ska utföra sådana finns risken att Sverige blir måltavla för vedergällning på liknande sätt som andra i Afghanistan krigförande länder. 

Man kan tycka att det är fel och att Sverige gör nytta i ett land som Afghanistan, men svenska folket måste ändå ta ställning till om de är beredda att betala det pris som det medför. Sverige måste i så fall nämligen öka säkerhetsåtgärderna. De kostar mångmiljardbelopp och medför övervakning och intrång i mångas integritet. Med detta kan det komma att tummas på de demokratiska rättigheterna. 
Vill vi i Sverige undvika risken för den typ av terror som är kopplad till sådant som vår militär närvaro i länder som Afghanistan måste vi dra oss ur sådana operationer. Nackdelen är att det ställer Sverige i sämre dager hos andra västländer, lämnar delar av befolkningen i landet i fråga med sämre skydd och att Sverige då ger efter för hot om terrordåd. 
Debatten om var yttrandefrihetens gränser ska sättas i relation till provokationer som Vilks teckningar av Muhammed kan också komma upp. 
Det är viktigt att i terrorfrågan skilja på sak och person, och till och med grupp. Sakförhållandet är att ett sprängdåd utförts varvid gärningsmannen blev den enda omkomna. Om gärningsmannen hade religiösa och politiska motiv och själv tillhörde en viss grupp etniskt och i andra avseenden går det inte att generalisera utifrån. 
Bara för att en gärningsperson är vit, svart, muslim, ateist eller kristen säger det inte att alla vita, svarta, muslimer, ateister eller kristna är möjliga gärningspersoner att utföra liknande dåd. 

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